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Debt Decomposition and the Role of Inflation:A Security Level Analysis for...
In this paper, to study India’s debt dynamics, we assemble a novel data-set on Indian public debt with consistently defined aggregate annual components from 1951–2018, and Centre-State security level data from 2000–2018. Based on aggregate debt data, we quantify the contribution of inflation, real GDP growth, nominal interest rates and primary deficit/surplus ...Kautilya Economic Conclave (KEC)
Funded by: Ministry of Finance Principal Investigator: Prof. Mausumi Das Date of Initiation: January, 2022 Likely Date of completion: September, 2022Azadi Ka Amrit Mahotsav (AKAM)
Funded by: Ministry of Finance Principal Investigator: Prof. Mausumi Das Date of Initiation: January, 2020 Likely Date of completion: March, 2022India Countary Economic Memorandum Convergence study
Funded by: The World Bank Group Principal Investigator: Dr. Sabyasachi Kar Date of Initiation: December, 2021 Likely Date of completion: September, 2022India Countary Economic Memorandum Convergence study
Funded by: The World Bank Group Principal Investigator: Dr. Sabyasachi Kar Date of Initiation: December, 2021 Likely Date of completion: September, 20212Differential Growth Impact of FDI on LICs, LMICs, and ECs: The Role of...
FDI has been beneficial to developing countries through increased access to capital, technology, foreign markets, superior managerial skills, and other backward and forward spillover effects. However, the developmental implications of FDI are dependent on the absorptive capabilities and levels of development. In this context, we scientifically examine the impact of FDI on ...New Approaches to Forecasting Growth and Inflation: Big Data and Machine...
The use of big data and machine learning techniques is now very common in many spheres and there is growing popularity of these approaches in macroeconomic forecasting as well. Is big data and machine learning really useful in the prediction of macroeconomic outcomes? Are they superior in performance compared to their traditional ...Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC): Critical Issues and the Indian...
A large number of Central Banks around the world are planning to introduce Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as a legal tender in their countries. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also revealed similar plans with an Indian CBDC expected in the near future. Any evaluation of such a major change ...DO DIFFERENT TYPES OF CAPITAL INFLOWS HAVE DIFFERENTIAL IMPACT ON OUTPUT?...
Emerging market economies have experienced an unprecedented rise in cross-border capital flows and the existing literature provides us evidence of both expansionary and contractionary effects of inflows on domestic output. In this context, we make an attempt to answer the following questions: (1) Do capital inflows lead to expansionary or contractionary effect ...Drivers of Corporate Investment Slowdown in India: A Firm Level Analysis
Majority of the existing literature has focused on examining the determinants of investment behaviour and the factors responsible for its slowdown at an aggregate level. There have only been a few studies analysing investment behaviour at firm level, and those are confined to the manufacturing sector using static panel models. In this ...Investment Slowdown in India: Role of Fiscal-Monetary policy and Economic...
The current study attempts to understand the determinants of investment and the underlying reasons for its current slowdown in India. For the purpose, we estimate the investment functions by using the ARDL bounds-testing approach on quarterly data from 2004-05Q1 to 2019-20Q1 at three levels – aggregate investment, private investment and private corporate ...Investment Behavior in India: What led to Investment Slowdown and how to...
The importance of investment for improved productivity and economic growth has been well established in both theoretical and empirical literature. Investment slowdown has been the subject of intense debate in recent years. Most of the existing debates have been around aggregate investment but disaggregate investment at institution wise and assets wise may ...Do Absorptive Capacities matter for FPI-Growth Nexus? Evidence from...
Since the 1990s, there has been an increase in the volume of Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) flowing to developing economies. Theoretically, FPI inflows are supposed to promote economic growth by lowering cost of capital, increasing investment, diversifying risk and developing the financial sector. However, FPI – being short term investments – may ...IMPACT OF OUTWARD FDI: Evidence from Emerging Economies for Policy
The study makes an attempt to contribute to the ongoing policy debate on whether OFDI has a complementary or substitution effect on domestic investment and hence, growth. For the purpose, the current paper uses panel data analysis to understand the impact of OFDI for 14 emerging economies in the period 1981-2019. We ...COVID-19 and the Paris Agreement target: A CGE analysis of alternative...
Journal of Urban Planning and DevelopmentGEN-GoI-UNDP-NATCOM
Funded by: Ministry of Environment Forest and Climate Change Principal Investigator: Prof. B.K. Pradhan Date of Initiation: August, 2021 Likely Date of completion: September, 2021Fiscal dominance in India: Through the windshield and the rearview mirror
Theoretical works have pointed at the potentially damaging impacts of fiscal dominance, i.e. fiscal authority’s profligacy being accommodated by the monetary authority. Recent scholarship have highlighted to the contrary the arguably positive effects of such accommodation under certain circumstances. Ergo, a surgical snipping of the cord of joint working of monetary and ...India’s Cartel Penalty Practices, Optimal Restitution and Deterrence
We analyze the cartel penalty regime in India in light of the literature on optimal penalty for restitution and deterrence, as well as current penalty practices in different jurisdictions. Our analysis reveals that though India’s Competition Act allows for a much harsher penalty than other jurisdictions in cartel cases, the actual practices ...EXPLORING THE CONVERGENCE PUZZLE IN INDIA: Combining neoclassical and...
The study of economic growth across countries is highly rewarding. Understanding the varied patterns of growth across countries is crucial because disparities in growth rates have, in due course of time, led to gaps in living standards and ‘welfare’. The Economic Survey 2016-17 (2017)conducts an empirical exercise for the ß-convergence for i) ...Harrod-Domar Formula for Two Sector Growth Models
In this paper the much celebrated Harrod-Domar model is extended to include a non-consumable capital good. Here, growth rate of capital is directly proportional to saving rate and inversely proportional to weighted harmonic mean of capital output ratios of two sectors. Moreover, our formula includes differential prices for the two goods. Further, ...BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE: Developments, Economic and Strategic...
China’s flagship project Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched in 2013 is meant to reshape global networks of transport infrastructure further integrating China with Asia, Europe and Africa having significant implications on trade, investment and economic and political ties of China vis-à-vis with other countries. The paper also highlights the economic as ...Finance and Innovation: Country-level Evidence on Role of Firm Size and...
With the increased globalization, the production processes are fragmented and the size of the firm tends to shrink under more competitive environment all over the world. Intuitively, it is assumed that small firms face much competition than the larger one that could raise innovation and receive less external finance for the same. ...Financial access of unbanked villages in India from 1951 to 2019: A...
With the increased globalization, the production processes are fragmented and the size of the firm tends to shrink under more competitive environment all over the world. Intuitively, it is assumed that small firms face much competition than the larger one that could raise innovation and receive less external finance for the same. ...Determinants of Economic Growth across States in India
Economic performance has been widely different across states in India. This paper attempts to examine some possible determinants of growth across 17 major states in India during 2004-05 to 2016-17. While investment data at the state level are not available to examine its influence on growth at the state level, the growth ...Constructing an Input-Output Table for Odisha for 2013-14
This study focuses on construction of regional input-output table for the Indian state of Odisha. From 2011-12 onwards, Government of India is publishing all-India Supply-Use tables instead of Input-Output tables. Using an all-India input-output table generated from the Supply-Use table, this is an attempt to make a state level Input-Output table, and ...The Role of Income Distribution in Financing Human Capital Investment
We study relations between parents’ income and children’s college graduation, using data for 20.5 million children, born during 1978-83 in the U.S. or authorized immigrants, and their parents, mobility matrices for 741 U.S. commuting zones and Markov chain model for income distribution. Graduation rates are significantly andcausally related to parents’ income shares. ...Demystifying causal inference: ingredients of a recipe
In the last few decades, scholars have contributed to a flourishing literature on casual inference and the demand for its application in areas like programme evaluation has increased. Our suggestion is that the following ingredients are useful for demystifying causal inference in introductory courses: (1) using the potential outcomes and causal graph ...Does it matter who extorts? Extortion by competent and incompetent...
Law enforcement officers can engage in two forms of corruption. Bribery, which arises when officers accept bribes from criminals, and extortion when officers demand payments from law-abiders. While bribery is mutually beneficial to both parties and therefore easy to explain, explaining extortion is more challenging because it only benefits one party; namely, ...Estimating Social Time Preference Rate for India:Lower Discount Rates for...
This paper provides estimates of social time preference rate for the appraisal of investment projects in India, It uses generalized Ramsay rule that accounts for impatience and wealth effects and precautionary effects of uncertain future consumption on rate of discount.Using relevant data from different sources for India, all three components of Ramsey ...Kuznets’ tension in India: Two episodes
Developing countries face a trade-off between the twin objectives of structural transformation and inclusive growth. This is the ‘developer’s dilemma’. This study analyses the dilemma as it manifested itself in the Indian context, and identifies two distinct episodes over the post-independence period. We characterize these two episodes as ‘inclusion without growth’ and ...Employment Modeling in India
After working out the long term series on employment based on forecast methods using the cross sectional estimates of elasticity of unorganized/informal sector employment with respect to organized/formal sector employment this paper argues that the long term employment growth in India has been sluggish. In the time series framework it is also ...G20’s Effectiveness in Turbulent and Normal Times
This paper examines the G20’s effectiveness in turbulent as opposed to normal times. The forum’s 2008-09 performance remains unparalleled as consensus, cooperation and collective action has eluded it since. This paper examines the G20’s efficacy in the two polar situations through a simple empirical exercise that employs efficiency scores constructed from word ...Corona Crash: Need Global Efforts to tackle Global Crisis
The Corona pandemic has affected around 6 lakh people with little more than 27 thousand casualties across the globe as on 27 of March 2020 and still counting. The pandemic has severely affected top economies such as China, Italy, Spain, Germany, S. Korea, France, the U.S., Switzerland, the U.K. and India. The ...Financial Access in Post-Reform India
This study focuses on the state of financial access in post-reform India. It is analysed from the macroeconomic growth perspective keeping in view the importance of rapid growth for the Indian economy and the fact that majority of production organizations especially in the unorganized segment are yet to have access to the ...